I don’t think Cuba has any kind of leverage that would cost the US anything.
Cubans have their own military and mid-range weapons. They aren’t nearly as fortified as the Iranians, and they don’t have a straight line to Russia or China for support, but they can absolutely put missiles all along the Gulf Coast if push comes to shove. They’re - bare minimum - as dangerous as Yemen is to Saudi Arabia.
It would be hell on earth for the island, though. Nobody actually wants a shooting war with the US. God only knows how many civilians would die as a result.
And the real second-order consequence of a US invasion of Cuba would be the flood of refugees. People would flee the island in droves. Jamaica, the Yucatan, the Bahamas, Haiti, hell Florida - they’d be inundated with people fleeing the country. As bad as US relations are with the Caribbean states, this would make things so much worse. You’re talking about and island of 10M people. It would be chaos.
Iran could supply drones to Cuba. It would be one way to give the United States a swirly, and further increasing the value of the Hormuz. Why settle for being merely 20% of the world’s supply of oil, when you can shrink the pie?
Cubans have their own military and mid-range weapons. They aren’t nearly as fortified as the Iranians, and they don’t have a straight line to Russia or China for support, but they can absolutely put missiles all along the Gulf Coast if push comes to shove. They’re - bare minimum - as dangerous as Yemen is to Saudi Arabia.
It would be hell on earth for the island, though. Nobody actually wants a shooting war with the US. God only knows how many civilians would die as a result.
And the real second-order consequence of a US invasion of Cuba would be the flood of refugees. People would flee the island in droves. Jamaica, the Yucatan, the Bahamas, Haiti, hell Florida - they’d be inundated with people fleeing the country. As bad as US relations are with the Caribbean states, this would make things so much worse. You’re talking about and island of 10M people. It would be chaos.
Lotta oil refineries in range of Cuba.
Naval drones in the Mississippi delta would be a problem.
Iran could supply drones to Cuba. It would be one way to give the United States a swirly, and further increasing the value of the Hormuz. Why settle for being merely 20% of the world’s supply of oil, when you can shrink the pie?