The two-week temporary ceasefire has done little to quell GOP fears about the war in Iran costing the party seats in November.
Republicans are relieved over Trump’s steps toward reconciliation in Iran — but they worry the measures are too little, too late to save them from a brutal midterm election cycle.
Behind the public celebration by many Republicans of the temporary two-week ceasefire announcement, longtime party operatives continue to warn of a bleak political reality as the cost-of-living concerns around the war including spiking gas prices that are likely to continue for weeks if not longer even if the fragile ceasefire holds.
A person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly, put it bluntly.
“This war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lose the midterms in November — the Senate and House,” the person said.
Popular vote doesn’t decide the election and NEVER has decided the presidential election. U.S. Constitution (Article II, Section 1) has always required the president to be chosen by the Electoral College or by the House of Representatives in rare cases where no one gets a majority of electoral votes.
The popular vote is only used by states to help choose their electors. It has never overridden or replaced the Electoral College.
Your popular-vote math is correct about shifting all ~2.92 million actual third-party votes to Harris flips the popular vote. But the presidency is decided by the Electoral College.
In the three big swing states you mentioned:
Pennsylvania: Trump’s margin (120,266) > third-party votes (~68k–92k) → PA does not flip.
Michigan + Wisconsin: yes, they flip (+25 EV).
Result: Harris ends at 251 EV, Trump at 287 EV. Trump still wins the presidency.
So the numbers actually confirm my point: even if every person who voted third-party had voted for Harris instead, Trump still becomes president.
All of this is straight from the official FEC certified results.
The popular vote does not matter, and has not mattered for a while. The Electoral vote decides the election. Which by the way, BOTH parties refuse to change.
It’s essentially unknowable, because the moment we remove third party votes, we can’t say for certain that margins the major parties would’ve ended up with. There’s too many variables to say with certainty. I’ll concede that all else being equal third party votes wouldn’t have shifted any EC votes, but my point is that all else isn’t equal in this hypothetical. What is true third party voting could’ve shifted the popular vote, and if it did and Trump still won we’d be looking at the third time the popular vote didn’t match the popular vote in the last seven elections, all benefiting republicans. I’m not saying those wins weren’t valid (except maybe 2000), but it does highlight something worth reevaluating.
The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](National Popular Vote Interstate Compact) would like a word. Just because there isn’t support in Congress for an amendment abolishing the EC, doesn’t mean there isn’t bipartisan support for overriding it.
But you didnd’t say that in your reply to me. You specifically said, “Disproving your point technically” and “but rather to refute your point that Trump would’ve won without the third party voters.”
Also, I think it is knowable by numbers. I specifically said that if all the people who voted third party in 2024 prez election had voted for Harris instead, she still would have lost the election. The numbers show it.
We don’t base it on popular vote and NEVER have. It’s Electoral votes. Now I wish we went by popular vote. And I’m all for going by popular vote. But that hasn’t happened yet, and wasn’t a reality in 2024, which is the time frame for my example.
I’m behind ya on wanting popular vote. But you were incorrect in you orginal reply by implying that my statement was wrong. The numbers prove it.
The popular vote/electoral vote argument has been happening during every election in my lifetime. I ready for that to change, but that doesn’t make my statement or facts incorrect.
Harris lost to Trump by such a large margin, that even if 3rd party voters had voted for her instead, Trump still would have won.
If you wanna point fingers, point them at non-voters. That’s what would have changed the election.