

It should have been a cakewalk because Trump was currently the guy screwing everything up and not improving people’s lives. Incumbency isn’t an advantage for President anymore and Trump (with help from COVID) was doing particularly badly. He had sub-40 approval polls and, before the general election campaign, polls were putting most of the main Democratic options up by 6-8. It wasn’t a cakewalk in the actual election because Biden didn’t run a good campaign.
Biden in 2024 was then the guy to blame for everything going wrong (inflation in this case), with sub-40 approval polls, and was on course to lose before being kicked off the ticket. And Harris made the baffling decision to frame herself as just being a younger Biden.
Not countering your opponent’s gains is also part of running a bad campaign. The same people who ran his campaign were running Harris’s and making all those dumb mistakes you highlight. Only she didn’t have the “change” label and Trump’s failures at the front of people’s minds to edge her over the line. Biden was heading toward a loss in 2024.
Presidential elections keep going down to the wire and it’s not because Donald Trump is just that talented. These things shouldn’t be being won or lost on the margins. All of the last three candidates have been a lot closer to John Kerry than Barrack Obama.