The Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. Not anymore.
Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago – seems like it might be too small.
Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.
They might not this election, but these gerrymandering attempts are more long lasting then one election. US voters (speaking as one) seem to have a terminal case of long term memory loss. So the next election everyone that normally votes republican but is disgusted by trump will go back to voting on their normal party lines, the new districts will stay in place, net them the extra seats and we get further racheted to the right.